![]() ![]() Confirmation error is the tendency to look at what confirms our knowledge, not our ignorance.For the butcher, it isn’t, because it isn’t unexpected. For the turkey, that Wednesday is a Black Swan.Then, on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected happens that will change the turkey’s belief. Each day’s feeding reinforces the bird’s belief that the nice human takes care of it. Think of a turkey that’s fed every day.The first reason for blindness to Black Swans: confirmation error. Despite this, people act as though things are predictable (e.g., producing 30-year projections of oil prices).Īlthough Black Swans are unpredictable, the way we deal with knowledge (not well) makes us especially vulnerable to the negative effects of Black Swans.The extreme, unknown, and improbable actually dominate our world. ![]() People come up with explanations for its occurrence, making it seem explainable and predictable.Is an outlier (it’s outside the realm of regular expectations the past does not convincingly point to its possibility). ![]()
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